Part 4. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: The course of events and strategies

2011/03/27

4. The course of events and strategies
Originally posted in Russian, Mar. 5th, 2011
Original source: http://comrade-vader.livejournal.com/23850.html

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Thus, a brief overall picture. In the fully formed capitalist countries of the the region it’s burst out just as well as in other capitalist countries, e.g., in the Europe. Only if the masses in Europe are convinced by the bourgeois propaganda that their political regimes is the most progressive political hi-end, and if that happens that the demonstrators are killed, it is not so much (in past times they killed liberally, but the practice has shown that there is no urgent need, if you have the strength just to beat and intimidate), then the Arab capitalist countries have not yet matured to filigree functioning of repressive police apparatus (they have yet to learn, learn and learn). And the glaring disparity of political institutions to the declared democratic norms was the one that caught the eye in the first instance, which caused the greatest anger and which was a prime target for attacks. As a result the mass protests in Tunisia and the Egypt have not eliminated the regimes, as well as the protests in the EU — and do not aim for that — but have led to changing relations towards compliance with the standards of modern bourgeois democracy. For Tunisians and Egyptians (to a lesser extent, as it became clear that the country is actually ruled by the military junta) there is a hope that now in front of them will be drawn democratic performance «rotation of elites», according to the rules of the genre. Step is small, but nevertheless it is a step forward.
Any bourgeoisie (and the Western in particular), as well as specialists from its servicing institutions are pragmatic people. Their principle is: to decide exactly what to do in this situation to turn this situation to their advantage.

Events in Egypt

Events in Egypt were highlighted by the Western media with the same intensity as the unrest in European cities (e.g., mass strikes in France, street battles in Greece). Resoluteness of the Egyptian protesters was fueled with successful experience of Tunisia. Egyptian regime headed for the suppression of the protests by force. In the country was off the Internet (from January 28 to February 2) and partially mobile communications. However, due to the fact that there was a massive grass-roots protest, not an orange political masquerade, the use of force does not lead to cessation of the protests, but to their strengthening. Increasingly harsh measures turned to more and more mass actions. Western politicians have kept silent, international institutions, kept silent. They made careful statements in the spirit of «Let’s live together! Let’s calm!» only when the media had reported hundreds dead, and police lost control of the streets. In the cities the army was introduced. And the army formally remained neutral. Strategic assets put under control. Curfew was declared. At the same time international functionary puppet ElBaradei has arrived in Egypt. Media immediately began to impose him as an opposition leader. Simultaneously they worked out the tasks: to become leader of movement or to suppress it.
Mubarak agreed to cosmetic changes (sacked the government, said that he would not participate in the next election). Army bosses and with them in unison Western politicians immediately began to play the enthusiasm and say: «Your demands are met, go home». Protesters angrily rejected the farce, there were banners reading: «USA, stop been foooool!» The tactics of the authorities has been changed: the masses of protesters were attacked by the groups of sporty men in civilian clothes, inferior to them by the number, who launched against the protesters and foreign journalists the street terror. Army didn’t prevent the attacks. Media immediately began to submit it as a clash of two equal camps — supporters and opponents of Mubarak. The real street fighting had started in Cairo. Against the demonstrators used firearms. Demonstrators did with materials at hand (in particular, the graphic evidence of that were homemade helmets, which provoke laughter from Russian observers, it seemed stupid from their point of view). It turned out that such a tactic of the regime did not give the desired result, but leads only to bitterness of protesters and tighten requirements. There started rumors about plans to attack the presidential palace. Al-Baradei and Muslim Brotherhood, who just joined the protests, were starting to back-pedal, claiming their refusal to participate in future elections and calling on the army to intervene. The tone of media coverage shifted to an intensive-alarmist: the country is the great losses! taxi drivers, souvenir sellers and tour operators can no longer endure! al-Qaeda will come to power! etc.
Tactics once again had been changed. The Supreme Military Council was formed. Mubarak has resigned, handing power to the military. The military suspended the constitution and dissolved parliament. It is assumed that they must organize the elections. Until then, apparently, there are consultations on the question of who will be the next puppet. Masses considered that target of protests have been reached.
Until the very end, in spite of multiple victims among protesters, Western politicians justified Mubarak and were with him maximally (obscenely) correct. After the departure of Mubarak, the media has been started a rumor that he fell into a coma (probably somewhere on a small tropical island, with blackjack and hookers), and his accounts, supposedly frozen. After that the Mubarak had been forgotten. About criminal proceedings in the International Criminal Court (ICC, the Hague) nobody even stuttered.
The masses have achieved the small change of the political system (we will see how Supreme Military Council will act). The local bourgeoisie and imperialist West retained its positions (perhaps now somewhat increase the cost of maintaining the performance of «free elections» in the country).

Events in Libya
Forces interested in the change of the Libyan regime (see section 3.2 above) took advantage of a right situation to begin replace of the Libyan leadership without arousing suspicions, awkward questions and resistance from other external forces. In the second half of February in the eastern provinces of Libya began an armed revolt. Military installations which were beyond the control of rebels were attacked. It was reported that the battle for first attacked base (in Benghazi) lasted five days [14]. And although the Western media claimes that the base was taken nearly by people with sticks, we can clearly see on the demonstrated materials that the base densely fired with small arms and heavy weapons, and was strongly burning (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. This military base, according to Euronews, stormed by spontaneously gathered and poorly armed civilian demonstrators

From the earliest days of the conflict the Western media launched against the Gaddafi’s regime real persecution in the best tradition of black PR (have no aversion to lies, juggling and even a simple swearing, I personally was particularly struck by the unpleasant fact that in different languages under the same picture (video report) was given different text, different interpretations of events). This combined with a total information vacuum. It claimed that the Internet is disconnected by the Libyan authorities, journalists are not allowed in Libya (where been lost all the local Libyan journalists — who knows), and so there was no possibility to get the records of peaceful demonstrations, which alegedly were going nonstop in Libya, as well as records of widely claimed atrocities of military loyalists, etc. Eventually it became clear that the total off the Internet — not true (there were only two night cutoffs that can not explain the long silence of the media in the sense of the facts). There were no video presentations from Libya in the early days not because there were not allowed Western journalists. Today every second guy has a camera or mobile phone with the camera, and the Internet was available, and Libyan borders are open. There were no such videos because there were no the peaceful mass protests. But was inspired from outside the armed revolt and military skirmishes. Hence there were those numerous photos, video materials with the heavily armed combatants, armed even with the armored vehicles, which they were already trained to manage. Hence the traces of heavy fighting in the pictures from the captured military bases and airfields.
On the basis of innuendo from the media, instant, one and all western politicians suddenly were inflamed with righteous anger against Gaddafi, competing in the rigidity of the language and, like, hurry to compensate their shameful stance on Egypt («supposedly about Egypt have all forgotten, but about Libya will remember, as I firmly and uncompromisingly went wild in righteous anger»). Where only gone politically correctness emphasized during Egyptian developments! — «Calling for regime change immediately is always a risky issue and also is seen to be interfering in the internal affairs of a country which has been an allied of the West» [23] (no, don’t worry, it’s about Mubarak). Libyan bureaucratic rats and bureaucratic opportunists had fled to the side of the strong [15-19], they have a flair for it.
However a few days later it became clear that despite all this orgy of western media Gaddafi’s regime has formidable support among the population (in Tripoli repeatedly held massive demonstrations in support of Gaddafi) and among the military. It appears that the rebels had sufficient support in the east too. Footage of mass demonstrations (about 7 thousands people) timed to the funeral had finally come from Benghazi. Up to now rallies in the crowd of 100-200 people were broadcasted as evidence of mass nation-wide protests. Interestingly, if the agitation in Egypt came from the masses themselves — the songs, slogans, cartoons, in huge quantities produced and exhibited in the squares by the people, the Libyan «rebels» have created for this purpose the special propaganda department at the headquarters, which already mobilized even as long as 10 artists engaged in continuous production of cartoons at Gaddafi (about this and about that in the camp of the insurgents are not everything with military affairs goes as smoothly as with the agitation, ingenuous Japanese journalists had said from the scene) [22]. Gaddafi’s drop under the pressure of media had failed to materialize, and throw on Tripoli (home to about a third of the population) drowned. The rhetoric of the «rebels» had changed too: at first they have categorically rejected any outside interference, and then they started talking about the need for a ban on flights over Libya, and then there were calls for the application of air strikes on Gaddafi’s forces «to hammer the final nail in the coffin of the regime!»
Based on the same insinuations from the Western media, international organizations and some countries had adopted a condemnatory resolutions, had imposed sanctions and, in fact, had organized a blockade of the country. At the same time the EU has attended to deliveries of humanitarian aid in eastern regions of the country (well, I think you got the idea of what kind of the humanitarian aid it would be). Western countries pull together a military force to the borders with Libya. If the «rebels», who have at the disposal not only armored vehicles and a wide range of ground facilities, but the aircraft and missiles (at least those are among the captured military equipment), would not be able to suppress loyalists on their own and with the assistance of consultants (it was reported that Libyan security forces detained servicemen Netherlands [20], which allegedly were a common soldiers who participated in the evacuation and had flown in one of the Libyan cities on the helicopter), there will be an open phase of the invasion.

Though US Secretary of Defense cautiously warns that this is not a best idea:

The Head of Pentagon recalled that the adopted last Saturday UN Security Council resolution on Libya «does not authorize the use of military force». Besides, he added, «there is no consensus within NATO over the use of military force in Libya». «This must be treated very carefully — the minister said. – We need to think carefully about whether to send our troops into another country in the Middle East?»

[13].

But there are… PROFITS! How is it: «Capital is said by a Quarterly Reviewer to fly turbulence and strife, and to be timid, which is very true; but this is very incompletely stating the question. Capital eschews no profit, or very small profit, just as Nature was formerly said to abhor a vacuum. With adequate profit, capital is very bold. A certain 10 per cent. will ensure its employment anywhere; 20 per cent. certain will produce eagerness; 50 per cent., positive audacity; 100 per cent. will make it ready to trample on all human laws; 300 per cent., and there is not a crime at which it will scruple, nor a risk it will not run, even to the chance of its owner being hanged. If turbulence and strife will bring a profit, it will freely encourage both. Smuggling and the slave-trade have amply proved all that is here stated» [9]. Здесь же речь, похоже, как раз идет о норме прибыли превышающей 100 % (см. табл. 2). Here it seems the rate of return exceeding 100% (see Table 2).

If the insurgents would be able to suppress Libyan army on their own, there would no need in invasion: Western corporations in Libya will just get more comfortable conditions, working classes will be deprived of their allowances (and why not? As one Russian capitalist have said: «Who do not have billion dollars should go get lost in the ass!»*). Fidel was right [21].

[* The irony of the reality is that he himself already has lost there. The rich also cry.]

—–
1. The World Factbook, 2010, CIA. — https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html
2. Рубакин Н.А. Россия в цифрах, 1912, с. 96-97 (49).
3. Народное хозяйство СССР за 70 лет: Юбилейный стат. ежегодник/Госкомстат СССР. — М.: Финансы и статистика, 1987. — 766 с. — с. 11
4. Ливия – страна одного Каддафи — euronews, 16/02 19:55 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/02/16/libya-today/
5. Libya today — euronews, 16/02 19:55 CET. — http://www.euronews.net/2011/02/16/libya-today/
6. Тунис: коррупционное наследие Бен-Али. — euronews, 25/02 13:56 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/02/25/ben-ali-s-corruption-culture/
7. Доклад о развитии человека 2010: 20-е, юбилейное издание. — Организации Объединенных Наций (ПРООН), Издательство «Весь Мир», 2010. — http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/
8. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2009. — Published for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2009. — http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2009/
9. T. J. Dunning, «Trade’s Unions and Strikes». London, 1860, p. 35, 36. — Цит. по: К.Маркс. Капитал / К. Маркс, Ф. Энгельс. Сочинения. Изд. 2-е. — Т. 23. — С. 770.
10. Rebel Libyan military leaders prepare Tripoli attack. — euronews, 28/02 07:45 CET. — http://www.euronews.net/2011/02/28/rebel-libyan-military-leaders-prepare-tripoli-attack/
11. ЛИВИЯ: США-ЭКСПЕРТЫ-ПРОГНОЗЫ. — ITAR-TASS, 01/03 05:30 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/newswires/768499-newswire/
12. Тобрук: тюрьма как символ системы. — euronews, 28/02 04:03 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/02/28/tobruk-s-people-driven-to-rebel/
13. ЛИВИЯ: США-ПЕНТАГОН-ГЕЙТС. — euronews, ITAR-TASS, 02/03 18:32 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/newswires/771805-newswire/
14. Колыбель ливийской революции. — euronews, 01/03 19:45 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/03/01/euronews-visits-fallen-benghazi-military-base/
15. Представитель Ливии при ООН выступил против Маумара Каддафи. — euronews, 26/02 13:43 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/02/26/libya-s-un-ambassador-calls-for-tough-sanctions/
16. Обама: “Санкции направлены против правительства Каддафи, а не народа Ливии”. — euronews, 26/02 05:05 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/02/26/un-urges-action-on-libya-as-us-imposes-sanctions/
17. Восточная часть Ливии, вероятно, находится под контролем повстанцев. — euronews, 25/02 06:43 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/02/25/gaddafi-clings-on-as-rebels-consolidate-gains/
18. Каддафи теряет контроль над Ливией. — euronews, 23/02 19:14 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/02/23/eastern-libya-free-from-gadaffi-rule-ex-major/
19. Экс-глава протокола Каддафи: надеюсь, до газовой атаки не дойдет. — euronews, 26/02 19:50 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/02/26/ex-gaddafi-insider-thinks-libyan-revolt-will-succeed/
20. В Ливии захвачены трое голландских военных. — euronews, 03/03 10:13 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/2011/03/03/dutch-soldiers-held-prisoner-in-libya/
21. Кастро Ф. ПЛАН НАТО – ОККУПИРОВАТЬ ЛИВИЮ. — 21 февраля 2011 года. — http://www.cuba.cu/gobierno/reflexiones/2011/rus/f220211r.html
22. ОБЩЕСТВО: ЛИВИЯ-ПОВСТАНЦЫ-КАРИКАТУРЫ. — ITAR-TASS, 01/03 06:23 CET. — http://ru.euronews.net/newswires/768559-newswire/
23. EU leaders prepare Mubarak farewells. — euronews, 03/02 19:38 CET. — http://www.euronews.net/2011/02/03/eu-leaders-prepare-mubarak-farewells/
24. Speech of Gaddafi to UN General Assembly, 2009 / Transcript. — MetaExistence Organization, Oct. 2009. — http://metaexistence.org/gaddafispeech.htm.
25. Speech of Gaddafi to UN General Assembly, 2009 / Video. — MSNBC, Sept 23, 2009. — http://comrade-vader.livejournal.com/25156.html#cutid1.

Contents:

Part 1. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: The role of the region in the international division of labor. — https://comradevader.wordpress.com/2011/03/27/part-1-libya-its-neighbors-and-a-bit-of-political-economy-the-role-of-the-region-in-the-international-division-of-labor/
Part 2. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: Demography and Social Policy. — https://comradevader.wordpress.com/2011/03/27/part-2-libya-its-neighbors-and-a-bit-of-political-economy-demography-and-social-policy/
Part 3. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: Class analysis. — https://comradevader.wordpress.com/2011/03/27/part-3-libya-its-neighbors-and-a-bit-of-political-economy-class-analysis/
Part 4. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: The course of events and strategies. — https://comradevader.wordpress.com/2011/03/27/part-4-libya-its-neighbors-and-a-bit-of-political-economy-the-course-of-events-and-strategies/

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3 Responses to “Part 4. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: The course of events and strategies”

  1. […] Part 4. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: The course of events and strategies &la… said 2011/03/27 at 23:43 […]

  2. […] Part 4. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: The course of events and strategies &la… said 2011/03/27 at 23:43 […]

  3. […] 4. Libya, its neighbors and a bit of political economy: The course of events and strategies. — https://comradevader.wordpress.com/2011/03/27/part-4-libya-its-neighbors-and-a-bit-of-political-econo… Posted by comradevader Filed in economy, Egypt, EU, imperialism, intervention, Libya, media, […]

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